Capital e trabalho no Brasil no século XXI: o impacto de políticas de transferência e de tributação sobre desigualdade, consumo e estrutura produtiva

Abstract

The debate about inequality and income distribution has gained focus in the recent economic discussion, especially due to an income concentration trend verified in developed countries and the repercussion of “Capital in the twenty first century”, by Thomas Piketty. In Brazil, data and studies have pointed out to an inequality decrease in the first decade of the 2000s. Since a redistributive process may bring many impacts and they are interconnected, their implications deserve an investigation. The aim of this dissertation was to analyze the economic impacts of income redistribution in Brazilian economy. We developed a detailed database in order to build a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The SAM presents a disaggregation by 10 representative households and the recursive dynamic CGE model is innovative since takes into account the SAM’s structure and flows, detailing the income generation and appropriation by different sources and the spending structure of the Brazilian economy. We applied the methodology to analyze two redistributive policies: the “Bolsa Família” Program (BFP) and a taxation on profits and dividends. The SAM indicators and the CGE results showed the economic growth process in Brazilian economy is associated with income concentration, so that, in the absence of structural changes or redistributive policies to mitigate these effects, the income concentration standard tends tobe reproduced. The results indicated the BFP also generates income gains for classes who do not receive cash transfers from Government, since the program indirect effects generates labor and capital income. An unprecedented conclusion is that, in addition to reduce income inequality from government transfers, the program has positive effects in reducing labor income inequality. Changes on income tax structure by fixing profits and dividends taxation associated with a reduction on labor income taxation would have potential to accelerate the inequality drop process in the Brazilian economy. Consumption and production oriented to domestic market would be encouraged. However, fixing tax on profits and dividends without reducing other taxes would bring an economic cost. The results suggest policies or redistributive phenomena have the potential to modify the productive structure for its effects on consumption, diversifying productive structure and investment, which may reduce long-term income concentration. We also conclude that a reduction in inequality does not imply economic cost, although its effect on growth is small.