Uma solução automatizada para avaliações quantitativas de impacto: primeiros resultados do MARVIm

Abstract

MARVIm (Automated Model in R for Verification of Impact) was developed as an agile first response tool to eventual demands of impact assessments of interest to BNDES. As a way to showcase the potential of MARVIm, we have implemented a series of assessments to investigate the same issue: how do the different interventions from BNDES affect the short-term performance of clients? Ten different types of intervention were assessed with the microdata from the Annual Social Information Report (Rais) and the Centralized Banking Services S.A. (Serasa) during the years 2008-2011. The variables of interest analyzed were always gross revenues, average number of employees, labor productivity, net profit and investment. In general, there was positive evidence of impact from BNDES on revenue, employment and investment of micro, small and medium-sized companies (MSME) supported with lines for BK acquisition (mainly BNDES Finame) and BNDES Card. Relevant impacts on the net income or labor productivity of clients were not identified. However, the results on the productivity will probably take more than two years to be observed, requiring an analysis interval longer than that implemented herein.