Avaliação de flexibilidades em infraestrutura portuária: uma abordagem por opções reais

Abstract

Infrastructure projects are characterized by long maturity and high capital investments. These projects present uncertainties that impact the economic and financial viability. Traditional methods of valuation fail to capture managerial flexibilities that add value to such projects. It becomes relevant to use optimization methods under uncertainty, which complement the traditional analysis. In this study a model was developed for decision making of expansion of a container port terminal in Brazil. In addition to providing a broader view of the port sector in Brazil, its contribution is the development of a flexible option pricing model, which can be adapted to other infrastructure project modeling, allowing the optimal expansion exercise.