Avaliação de impacto do BNDES Exim Pós-embarque Serviços: efeitos indiretos sobre a cadeia de fornecedores

Abstract

The service exports supported by BNDES involve, in addition to services provided by engineering and construction companies, the supply of goods and services of other Brazilian companies: the suppliers. By stimulating service exports, it is also sought to increase the demand for the suppliers’ products, which would lead to an increase in the activity of these companies and, consequently, to the creation of jobs. In this sense, the present analysis aims to establish this support’s effects on the suppliers when their exports are supported for the first time, generating evidence about the functioning of this logic. To measure corporate performance, the following outcome variables were selected: total payroll, employment, average remuneration, admissions, dismissals, total revenues and costs, operating revenues and costs, and investment. It is sought to identify the causal relationship of support with the performance of suppliers, understood as the difference between observed and counterfactual performance (which would occur if the companies had not been exposed to the support). For this, the assumption of selection on observables is adopted: the treatment group is compared to untreated companies that are equivalent to them in terms of characteristics – the control or explanatory variables. In particular, companies that had similar trajectories in their own outcome variables in the previous two years are compared. The outcomes provide favorable evidence of the increase in activity, with positive and statistically significant effects on: total revenue (the point estimates of the effect of support, considering different models, ranged from +3.9% and +4.8%); operating revenue (+5.1% to +5.5%); total cost (from +2.3% to +3.4%); and operating cost (from +4.6% to +5.7%). A positive impact on the total payroll (from +3.8% to +5.7%) was also found, being mainly related to employment level (from +3.3% to +4.6%), while the average remuneration registered a small variation (from +0.5% to +1.5%), which was statistically insignificant in some cases. These results suggest that firms respond to increased activity by employing more. By observing the employment flow variables, it was found that the most important margin was the retention of employees, with a reduction in the number of dismissals (from -1.6% to -3.4%), while admissions showed a small variation, with low statistical significance (from -0.7% to +1.1%). On the other hand, there was no increase in investment, which had a small impact (from -0.7% to -0.8%), with low statistical significance.